Metals show mixed performance, with LME and SHFE copper falling by over 1%, polysilicon rising by over 5%, and alumina and coking coal and coke rising by over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM July 9 News:

Metal Markets:

As of daytime session close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc rose 0.52% to lead gains, while SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE copper fell 1.36% and SHFE nickel dropped 1.2%, with other metals experiencing relatively small price fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 2.15%, marking three consecutive sessions of gains, while aluminum casting main contract gained 0.1%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.16%, and polysilicon main contract surged 5.03%. Silicon metal main contract fell 0.67%, while the main contract for Europe container shipping rose 1.69% to close at 2012.5.

Ferrous metals series generally rose, with iron ore up 0.68% and stainless steel up 0.35%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 3.81% and coke gained 2.43%.

Overseas markets: As of 15:01, LME zinc was the sole base metal showing gains in overseas markets, rising 0.04%. LME copper fell 1.33% and LME tin dropped 0.68%, with other metals experiencing relatively small price fluctuations.

Precious metals: As of 15:01, COMEX gold fell 0.52% while COMEX silver rose 0.1%. Domestically, SHFE gold dropped 1% and SHFE silver fell 0.2%.

Market snapshot as of 15:01 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Zheng Shanjie: China's average economic growth reached 5.5% in first four years of 14th Five-Year Plan] National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Director Zheng Shanjie stated at the State Council Information Office press conference on "High-Quality Implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan" thematic series that China's average economic growth rate reached 5.5% during the first four years. Despite its enormous economic scale and incremental growth, and having withstood unprecedented challenges like the global pandemic and trade bullying, China has maintained such growth momentum - an unprecedented achievement in economic development history. The country's economic expansion over the five-year period is projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the combined 2024 GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces (China's top three economic powerhouses), surpassing the total economic output of the Yangtze River Delta region and the GDP of the world's third-largest economy. China contributes approximately 30% to global economic growth annually. NDRC Deputy Director Li Chunlin emphasized that going forward, China will adhere to the principle of "moderately advanced but not excessive precocity," continuously strengthening foundations, leveraging advantages, addressing weaknesses, and reinforcing strategic areas to elevate the modern infrastructure system to new heights. The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines 102 major projects, which have achieved significant progress and outcomes through more than four years of implementation. All planned objectives are expected to be fully achieved by the end of the year. Zhou Haibing, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that China's NEV ownership reached 31.4 million units in 2024, representing more than fivefold growth from 4.92 million units at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period.》Click for details

[NBS: June CPI turns from YoY decline to growth, core CPI continues rebound; PPI MoM decline matches previous month]NBS data shows China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% YoY in June 2025. Urban areas saw 0.1% growth while rural areas declined 0.2%; food prices fell 0.3% and non-food prices rose 0.1%; consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% while service prices increased 0.5%. H1 CPI fell 0.1% YoY compared to the previous year. Month-on-month, CPI declined 0.1% in June, with urban areas down 0.1% and rural areas unchanged; food prices fell 0.4% while non-food prices remained flat; consumer goods prices dropped 0.1% and service prices were unchanged. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of NBS's Urban Department, analyzed June CPI and PPI data: the 0.1% YoY CPI increase marked a reversal after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed to 0.5% from 1.0% in the previous month, reducing downward pressure on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.7% YoY, a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month and the highest in 14 months. June PPI fell 0.4% MoM, matching May's decline. Key factors influencing PPI's MoM decline include: 1) seasonal downturn in domestic raw material manufacturing prices; 2) increased green electricity supply driving energy price declines; and 3) pricing pressures in export-oriented industries.》Click for details

►The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar in the interbank forex market stood at 7.1541 yuan per US dollar on July 9

US Dollar Update:

As of 15:01, the US dollar index temporarily stabilized at 97.5. CCTV News reported that US President Trump posted on "Truth Social" on August 8 (local time), stating the August 1 deadline for the "reciprocal tariff" grace period would not be extended. Markets continue monitoring shifts in US Fed interest rate cut expectations, alongside new US tariff developments and their potential impacts.

Macro FocusZ23/>Today's releases include: US May final wholesale inventories MoM, US July Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending July 6, and New Zealand's official cash rate decision on July 9. In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and release a monetary policy assessment report, followed by a monetary policy press conference hosted by Governor Adrian Orr.

Crude Oil Update:

As of 15:01, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude declining 0.25% and Brent crude dropping 0.21%. Investors are monitoring new developments regarding US tariffs. Anticipation of rising US crude inventories also weighed on prices.

Concerns persist that tariffs could dampen oil demand, despite robust travel demand during the July 4 US holiday weekend. Industry data suggests US crude inventories might increase by approximately 7.1 million barrels, even as fuel product inventories declined. "API's overnight data indicates bearish sentiment in the crude market," ING analysts noted in a client report, adding that "changes in refined product markets appear more positive."

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released at 22:30 Beijing time today. From a long-term supply perspective, the EIA forecast in its monthly report on Tuesday that US crude production in 2025 will fall short of previous expectations, as lower oil prices prompt US producers to slow production activities this year. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA stated that US oil output - as the world's largest producer - is projected to reach 13.37 million barrels per day in 2025, down from last month's forecast of 13.42 million barrels per day. (SMM Comprehensive Report)

SMM Daily Commentary

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